Should we back the underdogs?

In general most of the punters around the world prefer to bet on the favorites and avoid betting on underdogs. The most likely reason for such behavior is the natural desire to make more winnings, albeit the fact more of the bets are on smaller odds. However, what would happen if the bettors choose to bet on the outsiders in their matches against far stronger teams? This is the topic we are going to discuss in this post.

A few days ago while I was browsing the internet looking for interesting betting articles I came across an article showing the results of bets placed only for the outsiders. In this article an outsider is considered as a team whose odds of winning is higher than 3.5, regardless home or away the match is played.

A quick look at the results shows that overall this is not a very bad idea, at least not for England from whose four professional divisions the results had been collected. In practice, it turns out that there are teams that brought more than 60% pure profit per season if a punter backs them when they are put by the bookmakers in the role of outsiders. Of course, there are many teams that made losses too and if the punter continues backing them he or she will lose the entire betting bank.

Here are more details. The betting system I studied in the publication suggests using a small separate bank for each team in England. Through this bank a bet is made for every team when it is placed in the role of an outsider with odds of 3.5 or more. If betting on this team is so unprofitable that bankrupts its own separate bank, then no more bets for the team is being done.

When you draw the line and calculate all winnings and losses, you will get the following results. The bets are made for 123 teams, with each bet is one unit. At the end of the season, it turns out that the total profit is around 17 units. The bank that each team had was 8 units, which made a total of 984 units. This in turn makes profit at the end of the season around 1.7%, which is insignificantly small, but ultimately it’s something.

In any case, the approach to this system is interesting, but what is more important, it shows an excellent way to detect winning patterns, which is already good news. That’s why I intend to try finding more details about this system, for which I will write in more details later.

Comments are closed.